A U.S. Census Bureau working paper shows a dramatic generational shift. Less than one in four adults aged 25 to 34 have reached traditional adulthood milestones like moving out, getting married, or having kids. Fifty years ago, nearly half had achieved these benchmarks.
The reasons are clear. Rising student debt, soaring rents, and record home prices are pushing marriage, family formation, and homeownership further down the road. The median age of first-time homebuyers is now 38 according to the National Association of Realtors compared to the late 20s in the 1980s.
Certified financial planner Douglas Boneparth summed it up: “The economic bar for starting a family has risen, with affordability concerns shaping the timing and sequencing of life milestones more than in prior generations.”
Why Birth Rates Are Falling 👩👩👧👦
1. U.S. Fertility at a Record Low
The total fertility rate (TFR) dropped to 1.60 in 2024, the lowest in U.S. history and well below the replacement level of 2.1, according to the CDC.
2. Young Adults Want Fewer Children or None at All
Today’s 20 to 39 year olds expect to have fewer kids than a decade ago. Average intended family size fell from 2.3 in 2012 to 1.8 in 2023 according to Pew Research.
Only 75 to 77 percent now say they “have or plan to have at least one child” compared to around 90 percent in 2012 (Pew).
3. Delayed Childbearing and Rising Childlessness
Fertility declines are sharpest among women under 35. Birth rates for women aged 20 to 24 dropped 4 percent in 2023 and women aged 25 to 29 dropped 2 percent according to CDC data.
Researchers project that 1 in 4 women born in 1992 will remain childless by the end of their reproductive years (Brookings).
4. Housing Costs Are a Major Barrier 💰🏠
As Business Insider put it, “America’s unhinged real estate market is driving down the birth rate.” Many families cannot afford a home big enough to raise children, and rent eats into savings that could go toward a down payment.
The Bergen County Reality: Homeownership and Parenthood on Hold 🚫
Sky High Prices and Limited Space
- Median single-family home prices in Bergen County hover between $700,000 and $750,000 (NJMLS Market Data).
- Condos in Hackensack now average more than $400,000.
- To afford these prices at current mortgage rates, a household would need an income closer to $180,000 to $200,000. The county median is around $125,000.
- Rents remain steep, with one bedrooms in Fort Lee or Englewood at $2,300 to $2,800 per month (Zillow Rent Index).
These conditions make buying unrealistic for many young adults unless they receive family assistance or inheritance.
Impact on Families 👶
- Millennials in their late 20s and early 30s are often still living with parents.
- Marriage and children are postponed until some semblance of financial stability is achieved.
- Student loans and inflation cut into disposable income, delaying both homeownership and family planning.
Demographic and Market Ramifications 🔄
- Rental demand stays strong, keeping rent prices high.
- First-time buyer numbers shrink, limiting move-up purchases for sellers.
- Inheritance or parental help is becoming the main pathway to homeownership and family formation in Bergen County.
Bottom Line ✅
Nationally, fewer young adults are reaching milestones like marriage, kids, and homeownership. Bergen County magnifies the trend with some of the highest housing costs in the country. Student debt, inflation, and a declining birth rate are reshaping the market and delaying what used to be considered normal adulthood.
For homeowners considering selling, this means the buyer pool is narrower, older, and often wealthier. Investors and downsizers with cash dominate, while younger buyers and families remain on the sidelines.
👉 Next Step: If you’re a Bergen County homeowner thinking of selling to one these millennials currently living in their parents’ basement, contact NJ House Partners for a confidential consultation.
